From Here to Eternity: The Outlook for Fiscal Adjustment in Advanced Economies

Carlo Cottarelli, International Monetary Fund
View

Most recently posted material.

Op-ed Underperforming Even in Good Times
Arvind Subramanian — May 21, 2013
The late Professor Raj Krishna's term "Hindu growth rate" was an aptly pejorative description of India's economic performance. But he was referring to the pre-take-off period, the first three decades after Independence.

Peterson Perspectives Interview A Misguided Fix on Solar Panels?
Gary Clyde Hufbauer — May 21, 2013
Gary Clyde Hufbauer says that a reported US-EU-China accord to raise prices of solar panels will harm consumers and the solar energy industry.

RealTime Economic Issues Watch Quit Biting on Apple: Congress's Misplaced Outrage over Corporate Taxes
Gary Clyde Hufbauer — May 21, 2013
Senators are chomping down hard on Apple's tax returns, trying to paint the company as Peck's Bad Boy of corporate taxation. The lawmakers' appetite has been whetted by a congressional investigation showing that the company avoided billions in taxes by setting up a complex web of global subsidiar ...

North Korea: Witness to Transformation Kenneth Waltz 1924-2013
Stephan Haggard — May 21, 2013
In a classic essay, Isaiah Berlin draws on a fragment attributed to Archilochus to draw a distinction between foxes and hedgehogs; the fragment notes that "the fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing.” If there was ever a hedgehog, it was Kenneth Waltz. Waltz’s “one big thing” wa ...

China Economic Watch An Estimate of Excess Borrowing by Chinese Corporations
Nicholas Borst — May 17, 2013
Earlier this week Standard and Poor’s released a headline-grabbing report on global corporate borrowi ...

Speech Currency Wars, the Economy of the United States, and Reform of the International Monetary System [pdf]
C. Fred Bergsten — May 16, 2013
I am deeply honored to be invited to present this twelfth annual Stavros Niarchos Foundation Lecture at the Institute and want to take the occasion to add my personal gratitude to the Stavros Niarchos Foundation, led and represented here by Spyros Niarchos and Andreas Dracopoulos, for making this series possible and for supporting it so generously at the Institute over the past decade.

News Release Bergsten Warns That Currency Wars Pose "Clear and Present Danger"
May 16, 2013
WASHINGTON—Currency wars pose "a clear and present danger" to the world economy on a scale not seen since the breakup of the trading system that led to the Great Depression in the 1930s, C. Fred Bergsten warned at the annual

Op-ed Be Warned George Osborne: More Home Owners Just Really Means Higher Unemployment
David G. Blanchflower — May 13, 2013
Unemployment is a major source of unhappiness and mental ill-health. Yet after a century of economic research, the determinants of unemployment are still imperfectly understood, and unemployment levels in the industrialized nations are around 10 percent, with some over 20 percent.

RealTime Economic Issues Watch Effects of the Euro Crisis on Reserve Currency Holdings
Allie E. Bagnall — May 13, 2013
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the latest update of its data on the Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER) at the end of March, with data through the end of 2012. From the end of 2010 through the end of 2012, the quantity share (adjusted for the effects ...

Working Paper 13-4 The Rise of Emerging Asia: Regional Peace and Global Security [pdf]
Miles Kahler — May 10, 2013
The rapid economic rise of China, India, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) could have several effects on regional peace and global security. The power transition perspective overstates the risk of conflict that results from convergence between dominant and challenger states. Rapid changes in economic and military capabilities can, however, have negative consequences for regional peace.

New
Featured

From Here to Eternity: The Outlook for Fiscal Adjustment in Advanced Economies

Carlo Cottarelli, International Monetary Fund
View

Aaditya Mattoo and Arvind Subramanian propose four changes to trade rules needed to address climate change. Policy Brief 13-10. See also related op-ed: Four Changes to Trade Rules to Facilitate Climate Change Action

The latest court rulings in New York that try to make Argentina pay its debts cannot compel the country to pay. Instead, they threaten collateral damage to other countries and parts of the financial system, warns Anna Gelpern. Policy Brief 13-12.

David G. Blanchflower and Andrew J. Oswald explore the hypothesis that high home-ownership damages the labor market. Working Paper 13-3. See also related op-ed: Be Warned George Osborne: More Home Owners Just Really Means Higher Unemployment

Theodore H. Moran outlines a multilateral nondiscriminatory approach to dealing with cybersecurity threats posed by globalized information technology suppliers. Policy Brief 13-11.

Miles Kahler writes that the rapid economic rise of China, India, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) could have several effects on regional peace and global security. Working Paper 13-4.

The popular impression is that India's growth rates have been second only to China in recent years, but Arvind Subramanian explains that this impression is incorrect.

The claim that there was a clear tipping point for the ratio of government debt to GDP past which an economy's walls caved in never made any sense, writes Adam S. Posen, in response to the recent reevaluation of the data underlying Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff's 2010 paper on the subject. Arvind Subramanian argues that the incident exposes a flaw in the marketplace for ideas and research where superstars are involved. Listen to related interview.

Adam S. Posen testifies before the Joint Economic Committee hearing on "The Fed at 100: Can Monetary Policy Close the Growth Gap and Promote a Sound Dollar?" [pdf]

Ratifying seven pending WTO agreements could boost global exports by more than $2 trillion [pdf], say Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Jeffrey J. Schott, Cathleen Cimino, and Julia Muir in a new paper. Trade with emerging economies has been assigned a villainous role that far exceeds its impact, write Robert Z. Lawrence and Lawrence Edwards. See also Rising Tide: Is Growth in Emerging Economies Good for the United States?

The European Debt Crisis

Spring IMF Meeting

Toward a Stronger Eurozone: Fostering Growth and Completing the Architecture of EMU
Adam S. Posen participates in a high-level panel on the euro area that concluded the Spring International Monetary Fund meeting.

It is now clear that the International Monetary Fund’s advice to Southern European countries in 2008 and 2009 could hardly have been more flawed, writes Anders Åslund.

While some observers argue that the key lesson of the euro area’s baptism by fire is that greater fiscal and banking integration are needed to sustain the currency union, the real lessons of the euro crisis lie elsewhere, writes Arvind Subramanian.

Events

Whitman Lecture: The Euro Crisis Hans-Werner Sinn, Ifo Institute for Economic Research
Evaluation of the Troika Conditionality in Europe Release of Bruegel report
The Continuing Impact of the European Crisis Anders Borg, Finance Minister of Sweden
Russian Preparations for the Next G-20 Summit Russia's G-20 Sherpa Ksenia Yudaeva and Deputy Finance Minister Sergei Storchak

RealTime Economics Issues Posts

Effects of the Euro Crisis on Reserve Currency Holdings by Allie E. Bagnall
Is France a 'Peripheral' Country? by Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
Southern Europe's Problem: Poor Education by Anders Åslund
Uncertain Prospects for Italy and Cyprus by Jacob Funk Kirkegaard

Peterson Perspectives Interviews

Is Austerity Being Reconsidered in Europe?: with Angel Ubide

US corporate tax reform would make US multinational corporations stronger competitors in markets abroad and enable them to expand and invest more at home. Policy Brief 13-9 by Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Martin Vieiro.

The members of the World Trade Organization need to face up to the key trade policy questions of the day and embark on a substantive selection process when electing a new director-general, writes Robert B. Zoellick.

The golden age of global economic growth—in which a growing number of developing countries have caught up with the advanced economies—has mostly survived recent global economic crises, writes Arvind Subramanian.

Anders Åslund argues that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is departing from its traditional focus on financial stability and is instead helping opponents of fiscal reform.